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值得平心靜氣一讀的老外談香港文章。

Critical Spectator -
Hong Kong’s Suicide
The beginning of the end.
Michael Petraeus
July 10, 2019

老外時事評論員文章-香港正在自殺

一個時代結束的開始。

作者MichaelPetraeus

2019年7月10日。

I have been observing the events in Hong Kong quite silently for a while, expecting them to die down with time, as they usually have. But it seems that the tensions are going to last for a while longer, as the protesters appear to be emboldened by what they may think are their successes – mainly the withdrawal of the controversial extradition bill.

我默默地觀察香港的事件已有一段時間，期望它們會象往常一樣，隨著時間的推移會穩定下來。但是，這個緊張的局勢似乎還會持續一段時間。呃，由於抗議者似乎被他們認為他們成功爭取到的東西所鼓舞 - 主要是政府撤回有爭議的逃犯引渡法案。

In reality, what might look like an accomplishment of the opponents of Beijing’s encroachment on the city, can actually be the beginning of the end of the wealthy enclave.

實際上，北京政府對“反對所謂北京侵佔香港”的反對派妥協的做法，實際上可能是中國這塊褔地的富裕的終結的開始。

Competitive Disadvantage

不利於發展競爭

Ever since the British took over Hong Kong in the aftermath of the First Opium War in 1842, its position and wealth have rested on it being the gateway to the Middle Kingdom and its highly desirable goods.

自1842年第一次鴉片戰爭結束後，英國接管香港以來，其地位和財富都依賴於它作為來往神州中原的門戶的地位，以及最受歡迎的商品的貿易。
The world came to Hong Kong not because of Hong Kong but because of China.
Unfortunately, this critical strength has now become a deadly weakness.

世界各國各地來到香港發展不是因為香港，而是因為中國。不幸的是，這關鍵的力量現在已經竟成為致命的弱點。
For over a century it was China’s link to the rest of the planet – in most recent history allowing it to trade freely with other countries before PRC joined the WTO in 2001. Upon its return to the motherland, in 1997, it handled half of Chinese international trade. In the same year its GDP – a city of 6.5 million at the time – was a whopping 20% of that of all of China (with a population of 1200 million).

一個多世紀以來，香港一直是中國與世界其他地區的往來的紐帶 - 最近的歷史中，中國在2001年加入世貿組織之前， 香港是唯一被允許與其他國家自由貿易的“中國”城市。直至香港在1997年“回歸”前，它處理了中國國際貿易的一半。同年，當時擁有650萬人口的香港的GDP(國民收入) - 是整個中國人口總數的20%(人口12億人)。

Those days, however, are gone. Today it is no longer the trade nexus it used to be, with its national share dropping to about 12% and heading into single digits. Mere 15 years ago, the port of Hong Kong was the busiest in the world, competing head to head with Singapore. Now not only does it handle almost 10% fewer TEU than in 2004 (and nearly 20% fewer than in its peak in 2011) – but nearly 70% less than Singapore and has already slid from the top spot to no. 5 globally, overtaken by Shanghai, Ningbo and even by neighboring port of Shenzhen – while closely challenged by another nearby harbor in Guangzhou (which is set to top it this year) with Qingdao and Korean Busan following closely behind.

然而，那些日子已經一去不復返了。如今，它已經不再是過去的貿易關係了，它的經貿在國家的份額已經下降到了12%左右，而且還有趨勢會跌到個位數。就在15年前，香港的港口碼頭是世界上最繁忙的，與新加坡正面競爭。現在，它不僅處理的TEU(註)比2004年減少了近10% (比2011年的峰值減少了近20%)，而且對比新加坡還減少了近70%。在全球排名跌至第五位，並已被上海，寧波，甚至鄰近的深圳港超越 - 同時更受到鄰近港口的嚴格挑戰，如廣州(今年將位居榜首)，青島和韓國釜山緊隨其後。
註:TEU代表20英尺遠洋船運貨櫃的當量單位，用來測量一艘船的載貨能力。
You can see a similar decline in the financial markets, where Hong Kong’ Stock Exchange relative position has shrunk from a market capitalization twice the size of all of China’s two decades ago, to just a half today.

你可以看到金融市場也出現了類似的下跌，香港證券交易所的相對地位已經從20年前的兩倍於中國股市的市值縮減到今天只有一半。

Shanghai has already stolen its crown of the largest Chinese stock market by capitalization and Shenzhen is in hot pursuit, reaching $2.5 trillion vs. Hong Kong’s $4 trillion at the end of 2018. In the past 22 years its share of national GDP has plunged in the vicinity of 3% and is declining further as the rest of the country continues to grow.
Hong Kong is turning into just one of many Chinese cities. Everything that made it unique and valuable is very nearly gone – and the protests will only accelerate this erosion.

上海已經搶奪了市值最大的中國股市的桂冠，深圳也在緊追不捨，2018年底，深圳股票市塲的市值已經達到了2.5萬億美元對比香港的市塲市值4萬億美元。過去的22年裡，香港在國內生產總值中所占的份額驟降了近3%，並且隨著國家其他地區的繼續增長，這一比例還在進一步下降。

香港正變成許多中國內地城市中的一個。所有讓它獨一無二和有價值的東西都幾乎消失了-而不停的抗議活動只會加速這種損蝕、衰敗。

THE PRICE OF FREEDOM
Just as the rest of China is discovering and enjoying its newfound prosperity, disgruntled Hong Kongers are parading their complete disregard for it.

Born and raised in a world-class city (notwithstanding housing issues), they appear to be taking their position for granted.

自由的代價

正當中國其他省市及地方正在發展和享受新的繁榮一樣，香港人郤完全無視這一點事實，而去不斷“抗爭、示威”他們認為的不滿。

出生和長大在一個世界級城市(儘管有住房問題)的香港人，他們似乎認為自己要享有比人優越的地位是理所當然的。

The sobering reality is, however, that through what many of them surely perceive as defense of crucial liberties they are likely sacrificing their future – which depends nearly entirely on Beijing, whether they accept it or not.

然而，令人痛苦的現實是，他們中的許多人所認為正在以犧牲自己的未來，來捍衛他們心目中的關鍵“自由”的行為，是值得的 - 但其實這一切，幾乎完全取決於北京。不管他們接受不接受。

Freedoms bestowed upon them by departing Britain are going to disappear regardless of what they do, as China is ultimately going to take over governance entirely by 2047.
Understanding that this was always going to happen the question they should be asking themselves is not how to keep Beijing out but how to deal with it to retain Hong Kong’s prime status in unified China.

現實是不管他們現在做什麼，英國的離開，她賦予他們的自由(實際事實港英政府在一百多年都未有賦予香港人完整的自由, 何況民主, 請看過往香港歷史.。老安按)都將消失，因為中國最終在2047年完全接管香港的完整統治權。明白這一天的事實，香港人應該問自己的問題，不是如何將北京拒之門外，而是如何面對、處理，以維持香港在中國完全統一下香港怎維持優勢的地位。

Alas, despite the luxury of knowing what is going to happen 50 years in advance – a rare political gift – masses of the city’s inhabitants have chosen to fight it (against all odds), rather than simply adjust to it (especially as they started in a very privileged position).

唉， 儘管預測50年後的世情是非常奢求， 香港出現一份罕見的政治魔盒 - 這座城市的大多數居民還是選擇了與命運作鬥爭(儘管困難重重)，而不是簡單地說嘗試適應它(特別是當他們在回歸前，是處在一個非常特權的地位)。

With the latest wave of violent discontent the notion that Hong Kong may play a significant part in Chinese future could very well be out of the question. Given how widespread the protests have been, Beijing has little reassurance that the city can be entrusted any major role in the country.

在最近的以暴力發洩不滿浪潮中，香港在中國未來發展中想扮演重要角色的想法是絕不可能的了。鑒於抗議、抗爭活動如此廣泛頻繁，北京方面已經對這座城市失去任何把握、信心，俾他可以在中國持續發展計劃中扮演任何重要角色。

The center of gravity in trade and finance has already moved to Shanghai. It’s no longer a question of whether Hong Kong remains the country’s bridge to the world because it isn’t one anymore – or at least it isn’t the only or the main one. The question now is whether it gets overtaken by second or third tier cities, which are going to enjoy far more generosity from Beijing than it will.

貿易和金融重心已經轉移到上海。香港是否仍然是中國通往世界的橋樑，不再是一個問題了，因為事實上他已經不再是了。至少它不是唯一的、也不是其中主要者之一。現在的問題是，它是否會被內地二三線城市進一步取代，起碼這些城市將會從北京得到比香港更大的慷慨。

Many are eagerly celebrating the supposed achievements of the public revolt, with the extradition law now declared dead. Some are even making more demands.

許多人急切地慶祝公眾“起義”取得的成就，雖然逃犯引渡修訂法現在被宣佈死亡。現在有更多人甚至提出了更多的要求。
The paradoxical reality is, however, that, as long as Beijing is resisting, it means that it still sees value in Hong Kong worth fighting for. But when it concedes a defeat – which is cheered as a win by its opponents – it is an ominous sign for the city’s future.

然而，矛盾的現實是，只要北京方面繼續作出反制，就意味著她仍然認為香港的價值仍然值得為之爭取。但是當它完全承認失敗的時候，不再有為，這就是這座城市未來澈底沉淪的不祥之兆。

If the CCP leaders give up the fight to control Hong Kong, the city folk may enjoy more liberties – but at the expense of business and investment, which are going to be directed elsewhere.

如果中共領導人放棄控制香港的鬥爭，香港市民可能會享有更多的自由 - 但代價是商業和投資的損失，而這些投資將被引導到其他地方。(不止大陸，其他任何國家及地方還會考慮在香港作任何投資嗎? 這是簡單的問題。老安按)

Beijing doesn’t have to use force to subdue the city – all it has to do is tighten the screws elsewhere, restricting Hong Kong’s economic potential and minimizing its political influence, to relegate it from the country’s premier league..

北京不需要使用武力來征服香港 - 它所要做的就是收緊其他地方的螺絲釘，限制香港的經濟潛力，將其政治影響力降至最低，從而降低香港在國家的超級聯賽的組別。

At the same time, any serious instability and unpredictability are going to scare foreign business away. Companies dealing with China are going to move to locations preferred by the leaders in Beijing. In the meanwhile, major organizations looking for a regional safe haven to conduct their operations around Asia from are going to look to other jurisdictions – with Singapore being the most attractive destination, offering largely the same benefits as Hong Kong – coupled with stability its sovereignty guarantees.
與此同時，任何嚴重的不穩定和不可預測性都會把外國企業嚇跑。與中國打交道的公司將遷往北京領導人喜歡的地點。與此同時，各種主要國際組織及構構一定會在亞洲各地另外尋求較安定、 穩定的法治地區繼續開展業務 - 新加坡是最吸引人的目的地，很大程度上提供與香港相同的好處及優勢，還有加上其政權的穩定的保,險及法治的保障。
What will “freedom” mean then, if once great career and business opportunities disappear? When perspectives become bleak and getting a good job is going to require venturing to the mainland – or abroad?

那麼，“自由”意味著什麼呢？如果一旦偉大的職業和商業機會消失，當前景變得黯淡，如要找到一份好工作時，就需要到大陸去“冒險”-或者移民？

What’s the use of your civil liberties when you’re no longer free to live a life you could have lived in the past?

當你不再自在地享受過去的美好生活時，你的公民自由有什麼用？

That’s the Hong Kong paradox. Legal freedoms do not necessarily translate into real freedom. But before the city’s rambunctious youth realize that, it will be too late to change course.

這就是香港的現在的悖論。法律自由不一定能轉化為真正的自由。但在這座城市正在喧囂、暴亂、躁動的年輕人們在意識到這一點之前，改變路線為時已晚。
In fact, it already is.

事實上，已經是了, 悔之已經晚了。

按: 老安把這篇英文文章試譯為漢文。